Modern Data Management and the COVID 19 Pandemic

For a timely example of modern data management, take a look at the Johns Hopkins visualization of the COVID 19 pandemic. For an example of NOT modern data management, take a look at the CDC reporting on the flu. The contrast is stunning. The COVID 19 visualization updates every 15 minutes and shows its source data and methods. The CDC flu page has not been updated since week 8, February 22.

Modern Data Management
(updated every 15 mins, exposes source data and methods)

Johns Hopkins Visualization of COVID 19 Data - lists its sources, updates every 15 minutes

With 100,000 cases and 3,400 deaths we can easily calculate the death rate of 3.4%. We know that many of the governments are not reporting the data accurately — particularly when it comes to cases. So the death rate may be significantly less because the number of cases could be much higher.

It would be interesting to compare the COVID 19 model to the CDC flu model, but so far I have not found a good side by side where the data is presented in similar formats.  It appears that the CDC takes some time to compile its estimates of the impact of the flu. In this report, the 2017-2018 and 2018-2019 seasons are still listed as preliminary and subject to future revision. The elevated attention on COVID 19 and the hour by hour real time reporting is a significantly different method from compiling estimates based on death certificates. It is not hard to imagine a scenario where a COVID 19 death goes unreported.

NOT Modern Data Management

(Update interval unknown - weeks or more; source data and methods unknown)

CDC Flu Report Weekly — 3 week lagtime.

The CDC reporting presents deaths as a percent of all deaths in the US and cases as n per 100,000 — making it theoretically possible to calculate the death rate. In the text the CDC estimates there have been at least 32 million cases, 310,000 hospitalizations, and 18,000 deaths from the flu this season. A death rate of .0005. (one 20th of one percent).

There is no question that the COVID 19 dashboard also has shortcomings. Most notably, it can only present the data we have available and as has been widely reported in the news, the US government has barely been testing anyone. So the number of cases in the US is not accurate and everyone knows it.

For those interested in pathogen tracing, check out Nextstrain.

Nextstrain, an open-source project tracking pathogen genome data, does a better job of tracking how the virus travels, but does not do as well in presenting the number of cases, their current status, and fatalities.

NextStrain tracking of the evolution of the virus

I am sure this is interesting to epidemiologists. I am not sure what it telling us though.

For those that think we should give our governments or the CDC a pass because data work is hard. Check out this website put up by a high school student in Mercer Island, WA (by Seattle).

Modernization: Aren't Computers Already Modern?

After a five year hiatus, I am restarting this blog. It’s a bit crazy to think that my last post was about Marshawn Lynch, and Marshawn just returned to Seahawk football and plays for us tomorrow against Green Bay. The more things change, the more they stay the same!

While I was away from blogging I was helping Microsoft and its partners pave the way for their customers’ journey to the cloud. In the weeks and months ahead I hope to share some of the things I learned along the way.

Here are three main themes I expect us to be talking about this year:

Modernization: How can computing need modernization? In the movies, computers are always futuristic! We have seen many breakthroughs in computing but two really stand out: the personal computer (PC) and the virtual machine (VM). The PC moved us from hundreds of computers in the world to hundreds of millions of computers in the world. The VM disconnected hardware from software. I propose that modern computing started with the introduction of the VM. This wave was started by VMware, which was founded in 1998 and launched VMware Workstation in 1999 and VMware GSX Server in 2001. So the modern era started 20 years ago. Yeah, I know that the internet and the smartphone were also big.

Fragmentation: The big computer companies get most of the attention, but there are hundreds of companies on the front edge of modernization and more are starting every day. These companies often compete and collaborate and the same time and are going to be buying each other at speed for years to come.

Just Getting Started: The Amazonians are right when they say it is only Day 1. We are just getting started on this modernization thing and everything can change at any time.

I look forward to a vibrant conversation about these and many other topics in the days ahead.

Marshawn Lynch's Brilliant Media Strategy

People in Seattle love Marshawn Lynch.  We could take or leave the NFL (and their referees but that is another story).  Just go ahead and fine him for not talking to the media -- we will just love him more!  By next year this whole episode is going to be taught as a case study in how a highly public organization like the NFL should NOT manage a conflict.

Based on his recent performance, and the heightened media attention he is getting as a result of his media strategy, all kinds of companies should be lining up to get him on their team.

Here are my five best ideas for sponsors that should hire Marshawn as their spokesman:

NFL Players Association: Might as well start with something edgy!  I am not a big fan of unions, but this is just too much to pass up.  What if every time Marshawn spoke he spoke about player safety?

Polaris Project: On a more serious note, this organization was established 10 years ago to help fight human trafficking.  What could be more important to talk about?

Scholarship Junkies: OK, not so obvious, and not so heavy... how about an organization that helps kids from all parts of the community get more scholarships -- so they can go to college and not wind up with piles of debt.

Toastmasters: This one could be so much fun.  Marshawn could speak for everyone who has a fear public speaking.  According to a recent Gallup poll, public speaking is the second most prevalent fear by Americans (snakes is the first).   Interestingly, whites fear public speaking more than non-whites.  

Dale Carnegie: This one is also so obvious that it scarcely needs an explanation. But ever since the book "How to Win Friends and Influence People" was published by Dale Carnegie in 1936, people have been learning how to lead others by remembering their names, appreciating them for who they are, and being courteous.  There is not a single mention of $100,000 fines as a way to change behavior!

So keep up the good work Marshawn.  We don't care how many times the NFL tries to change your behavior, and when you do decide to speak, make sure it is for something worthwhile.

Hiring Your First VP of Marketing

You have a great company, a product or service that sells well enough to have driven your growth so far, and a good team of A players in finance, operations, and sales.  Now you are thinking that your next critical hire is an A player in marketing.  So far the marketing function has been handled by some combination of you (president/CEO) and the VP of Sales, and has consisted of writing a blog, speaking and exhibiting at industry events, and networking.  Most sales still come from referrals and personal relationships and you want to make the selling process more systematic.  While this seems like just another one of those crossroads you have encountered many times -- I propose that it is quite different.

Bringing in professionals to run your company almost always means importing talent from larger companies so that they can help you pull the company up to the next level.  This is certainly true in finance and operations.  You want people that have been there and know what to build.  It can sometimes be true in sales, but in sales you are mostly looking for domain expertise that may not always be found in a larger company.  When it comes to marketing however, a senior person from a larger company may not work out.  And to raise the stakes a bit more, you will probably not know if it works out for a year or two.  That is a long time to be paying the big bucks without being able to measure the results.

Here are a few things that can go wrong:

Sales VS Marketing:  In the case outlined above, sales and marketing have gotten along great -- because marketing has been part of sales and hey, salespeople love themselves!  Your A player in sales will support the hire in pursuit of more leads, but the chances are pretty good that the departments will get out of alignment pretty quickly.

Long Lead Times:  Marketing takes consistent and repeated investment before it will pay off.  Some of the activities involved in the investment are just plain hard work including cataloging your products and services, inventorying existing marketing assets, mapping the competitive landscape, and developing your marketing voice.  A new senior leader may want to recruit people to do this work instead of grinding it out themselves.  This is often leads to disagreements on the budget and timeline to results.  

Turning the Dials:  Everyone wants to be on the cool new project and everyone wants to have a hand on the tiller, be in the driver's seat, or whatever your favorite metaphor is for being in charge.  A new marketing person may be one too many drivers for your bus.

An Alternative Approach

Build the Marketing Muscle First:  Use the resources at your disposal to do the heavy lifting of inventory, standardization, and categorization first.  These activities take time and effort but do not require a VP of Marketing.  

Develop The Strategy You Want:  Armed with the main bricks for your marketing foundation and some momentum separating the marketing function from the sales function, work with your existing team to develop a high level strategic marketing plan.

Recruit with the Roadmap in Place:  Now that you have your high level roadmap in place, you are more likely to find a marketing leader that fits with your priorities, expectations and budget.